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GBP/USD Exchange Rate Climbs Amid Falling US Inflation

July 11, 2024July 13th, 2024No Comments
Mariel Rhetta
Content Strategist at Rutland FX
Published on: (Updated ) - minute read

The latest inflation data has been released from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, showing that headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) has fallen for a third consecutive month and now stands at 3%. This figure is below analyst expectations of 3.1%, indicating a cooling in inflationary pressures. As a result, market participants are increasingly expecting the U.S. Federal Reserve to reduce their policy rate this year, possibly as soon as September.

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Implications for the Pound to USD Exchange Rate

The pound to USD exchange rate has responded notably to the latest inflation data. The exchange rate has rallied today from around 1.2850 to approximately 1.2932, which is a percentage increase of about 0.64%. This movement suggests that market expectations for interest rate adjustments have shifted, with a growing belief that the U.S. might cut rates before the UK. If the U.S. Federal Reserve moves to reduce rates ahead of the Bank of England, this divergence in monetary policy could lead to further appreciation of the pound against the dollar.

Given the current trajectory, the pound to USD exchange rate could potentially hit the 1.30 level in the near future. This potential rise reflects a shift in market sentiment, favoring the pound over the dollar due to anticipated policy divergences. Together with the new Labour government and some of their inflationary policies that may cause the Bank of England to keep rates higher for longer, investors are closely watching economic indicators and central bank signals from both sides of the Atlantic. The market will be closely monitoring UK inflation data, which is set to be released next week, and assessing the concrete actions taken by the Labour government in its first 100 days.

Breakdown of the Report

Annual Inflation Rate:
  • Fell for the third straight month to 3% in June 2024.
  • Lowest rate since June 2023.
  • Down from 3.3% in May.
  • Below forecasts of 3.1%.
Monthly CPI:
  • Declined unexpectedly by 0.1%.
  • Previous month (May) had a flat reading.
  • Forecasted to rise by 0.1%.
Gasoline Index:
  • Fell by 3.8% in June.
  • Declined by 3.6% in May.
  • More than offset an increase in the shelter index.
Annual Core Inflation:
  • Slowed to 3.3% in June 2024.
  • Lowest rate since April 2021.
  • Down from 3.4% in May.
  • Forecasted to remain steady.
Monthly Core Inflation Rate:
  • Edged down to 0.1%.
  • Previous month (May) was at 0.2%.
  • Below expectations of 0.2%.
The latest U.S. inflation data has had a significant impact on the pound to USD exchange rate, underpinned by shifting market expectations regarding interest rate policies and potential government policies. With the possibility of the U.S. Federal Reserve cutting rates as early as September, the pound could continue to gain strength against the dollar, potentially reaching the 1.30 level. This development highlights the intricate interplay between inflation data, central bank policies, and currency markets, providing valuable insights for investors and policymakers alike.

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