What is a Pegged Exchange Rate?

What is a Currency Peg?

A currency peg involves a country’s monetary authority fixing its currency’s exchange rate to that of another currency. The pegged currency will rise and fall in tandem with the currency to which it is pegged. For example, the Chinese Yuan (CNY) was pegged to the US Dollar (USD) for a significant period.

Why Do Countries Peg Their Currencies?

Countries opt for a currency peg for several reasons:

• Stability: By pegging to a stable currency, countries can maintain stable exchange rates, which helps in reducing inflation and fostering an environment conducive to economic growth.
• Trade and Investment: A stable currency attracts foreign investors and facilitates smoother trade relations, as businesses can plan without worrying about volatile exchange rate fluctuations.
• Monetary Discipline: A peg can help enforce monetary discipline in countries with historically high inflation, as they need to maintain large reserves of the anchor currency to defend the peg.

How is a Currency Peg Maintained?

Maintaining a currency peg requires active intervention by the country’s central bank or monetary authority. The primary methods used include:

1. Foreign Exchange Reserves: The central bank maintains large reserves of the anchor currency. If the local currency value deviates from the peg, the central bank intervenes by buying or selling its currency. For example, if the CNY depreciates against the USD, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) might sell USD from its reserves to buy CNY, thus supporting its value.
2. Interest Rate Adjustments: Central banks can adjust interest rates to make their currency more or less attractive. Higher interest rates can attract foreign investment, increasing demand for the local currency and helping maintain the peg.
3. Capital Controls: Some countries impose restrictions on the flow of capital to prevent sudden outflows that could destabilise the currency.

Case Study: The Chinese Yuan (CNY)

The Chinese Yuan (CNY) provides an illustrative example of a currency peg:

Historical Context

• Pre-2005: The CNY was pegged to the USD at a fixed rate of around 8.28 Yuan per Dollar. This peg helped stabilise China’s economy during its rapid growth phase by providing certainty for international trade and investment.
• 2005-2015: China shifted to a managed float system where the CNY was allowed to fluctuate within a narrow band relative to a basket of currencies. This gave China more flexibility while still maintaining some stability.
• Post-2015: The CNY is officially described as being under a “managed floating exchange rate regime based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies.” This means that while the Yuan is influenced by market forces, the PBOC intervenes to prevent excessive volatility.

Mechanisms of Maintenance

• Intervention in Forex Markets: The PBOC regularly intervenes in foreign exchange markets to smooth out excessive fluctuations. This involves buying or selling foreign currencies to maintain the desired exchange rate band.
• Foreign Reserves: China holds one of the largest reserves of foreign currencies in the world, primarily in USD. This immense reserve acts as a buffer against market pressures that might push the CNY outside its desired range.
• Policy Tools: The PBOC uses a variety of tools, including adjustments to the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for banks, interest rate changes, and open market operations to influence the currency’s value.

Benefits and Drawbacks of a Currency Peg

Benefits

• Predictability for Businesses: UK businesses importing from or exporting to a country with a pegged currency can predict costs more accurately, aiding in budgeting and financial planning.
• Inflation Control: Pegged currencies can help stabilise prices, reducing the risk of hyperinflation.
• Investment Attractiveness: Stable currencies attract foreign direct investment (FDI), as investors face lower currency risk.

Drawbacks

• Loss of Monetary Policy Independence: A country must often follow the monetary policy of the anchor currency’s country, which might not suit its own economic conditions.
• Risk of Speculative Attacks: If investors believe the peg is unsustainable, they might speculate against the currency, forcing the central bank to use substantial reserves to defend it.
• Economic Imbalances: A fixed rate might lead to trade imbalances, as the pegged currency could be undervalued or overvalued relative to its economic fundamentals.

A currency pegged regime can offer significant benefits, particularly in terms of stability and predictability for international trade and investment. However, it also comes with challenges, including the need for substantial foreign reserves and the risk of speculative attacks. By understanding how such regimes work and staying informed about relevant economic policies, UK businesses and individuals can better navigate the complexities of international finance. The case of the Chinese Yuan illustrates both the advantages and the intricate mechanisms involved in maintaining a currency peg, providing valuable insights for those engaged in cross-border financial activities.